Americans fall out of love … again.

The thrill has gone, to linger on would spoil it anyhow … for the party’s over now.

— Noël Coward

Presidential Approval

The chart above isn’t the descent of the Matterhorn … it’s the downward trajectory of Barack Obama’s approval ratings in the Gallup Poll since his reelection last year.

Descent of the Matterhorn (Edward Whymper)
No good end: Explorer Edward Whymper’s climbing team shortly after reaching the summit of the Matterhorn (1865).

So it is a descent of sorts.  And it’s beginning to look eerily similar to what befell George W. Bush and his poll numbers at roughly the same period in his presidency, as this comparative graph prepared by the Pew Research Center illustrates:

Presidential poll comparisonsOne can point to specific events during each administration that could be inflection points in the public’s changing perception of presidential performance:  The Iraq War surge … Hurricane Katrina … the Affordable Care Act rollout … the Benghazi Consulate attack … the NSA eavesdropping scandal and so forth.

But I wonder if it’s actually those elements … or is it more that we fickle Americans are prone to tire of our presidents after about the fifth year or so.

Hearing one speech or one press conference too many … or perhaps hearing a statement or two by the administration that doesn’t ring quite true.  It’s not a big step to go from those unpleasant interactions to simply tuning out.

Whatever it is, we’re probably in the midst of witnessing a break between the public and the Obama administration that’s here to stay for the remainder of the President’s term.

Of course, the chart above also reminds us that second term presidential popularity trends looked somewhat different if we dip back in history 15 years or further.

What are your thoughts on today’s developments?  Is this the “new normal” for Americans in our “instant gratification” age?  Or do you see the dynamics differently?  Feel free to share your comments with other readers here.

Which are the 10 Scariest Airports in America?

By Phillip Nones

Happy landings
“Welcome to Charleston, West Virginia. You can stop hyperventilating now.”

I’ve flown in and out of many airports in my time, encountering the usual plane delays and occasional rough-weather bumpy rides along the way.

But the most frightening airport I think I’ve ever experienced is the one in Charleston, West Virginia.  It’s situated on top of a mountain, and the runway ends mere feet away from a cliff-like drop-off.

Other people I’ve spoken with are spooked by the airports in San Francisco and Boston, where the runways protruding into the ocean give the eerie sensation of landing on water.

In any case, when Airfarewatchdog.com came out with its “Top 10 Scariest Airports in America” ranking recently, I wasn’t surprised to see that the Charleston airport made the list.

Shown below are the ten airports in question, headlined by Reagan National Airport.  See how many of them you’ve flown into … and if you agree that they deserve the notoriety:

#1 Scariest:  Reagan Washington National Airport, Washington, DC – Perched precariously as it is between two overlapping no-fly zones, approaching and leaving this airport is akin to threading a needle.

#2:  Telluride Regional Airport, Telluride, CO – It’s the highest-altitude commercial airport in North America, with no touch-and-go landings permitted.  Basically, the pilot gets one shot to land the plane.

#3:  Catalina Island Airport, Avalon, CA – Its elevation and location on the edge of the island makes planes prone to major-league turbulence and downdrafts.

#4:  LaGuardia Airport, New York, NY – As Airfarewatchdog.com puts it, the airspace around this airport is “uniquely crowded” (read:  dangerous).

#5:  San Diego International Airport, San Diego, CA – It has a downtown location.  No more needs to be said.

#6:  Yeager Airport, Charleston, WV – My “favorite” white-knuckle airport makes the list:  the one with the runway atop a mountain that’s situated between two ravines.

#7:  Rocky Gutierrez Airport, Sitka, AK – Obstacle course ahead:  When the weather is stormy, rocks and other debris pile up on the runway at this island airport facility.

#8:  Midway Airport, Chicago, IL – Short runways and a “convenient in-town location” make for some interestingly rapid dropdowns from the sky … not to mention “pull-back-on-the throttle” takeoffs.

#9:  John Wayne Airport, Santa Ana, CA – Air sickness bag alert:  Appropriately Californiaesque state and local noise restrictions require takeoffs at full throttle … then cutting back immediately on the engines.

#10:  Pitkin County Airport, Aspen, CO – The exact opposite of Charleston, WV:  This airport is situated in a valley wedged between two mountains – no doubt massively fun during one of Aspen’s notorious snowstorms.

Based on your own experiences, which one of these airports should be ranked “#1 Scariest”?

… Or are there other U.S. airports that you think qualify for “Top 10” honors?  I’m sure other readers would be interested to hear your perspectives.

Come to think of it, if you have any “scary airport tales” from anywhere in the world, here’s your chance to enlighten us …

Is it time to change daylight savings time – and time zones – once and for all?

changing the timeEach time we Americans need to change our clocks, it’s accompanied by an undercurrent of grumbling about how disruptive it can be to our daily routines.

Indeed, in certain states that are in close physical proximity to time zone boundaries, the issue can be controversial enough to affect the popularity of elected officials, as has happened in Indiana and Arizona.

Daylight savings time, an innovation that became popular in the 1970s, continues to be a nettlesome issue because of when it is in effect in the United States – nearly a month earlier and a month later than before … and no longer in sync with other countries (if they even observe DST — and many of them don’t).

Daylight savings time is supposed to be more energy-efficient.  But it turns out the energy savings are minimal if any.  Uncoordinated time changes could very well undermine economic efficiency far more than any positive impact in energy savings.

A case in point:  Lack of synchronization with European time changes is estimated to cost the airline industry nearly $150 million in travel disruptions each year.

Moreover, some investigations have found that daylight savings time may actually cause worker productivity to be lower.

Does the current time zone structure have to be cast in stone?  Of course not.  The history of “time” is actually one of pretty constant change, dating all the way back to when time zones were first implemented in the 1880s.

Before then, each city and town had its own local time which was established by calculating the solar time in the local location using sundials.  Effectively, this meant that there were more than 300 different time zones in the U.S.A.

The American railroads were more streamlined:  They operated with only about 100 time zones.

Clearly, introducing four time zones for the continental U.S. was a way to introduce simplicity while compromising only a little regarding human biorhythms.

Of course, it took awhile for the time zone system to be adopted worldwide, but eventually it happened.

The economic and commercial landscape looks far different today than in the late 19th Century.  We are no longer bound by the physical limitations of geography in terms of how we do business.

As a result, some economists are suggesting that it’s time to overhaul the time zone structure and to move to a system that is even simpler and less disruptive to people’s lives.

One economist, Allison Schrager, has come up with the most radical solution I’ve seen yet.  Drawing from economic models plus her own experiences working across multiple time zones, Dr. Schrager has put forward the following recommendations:

  • Scrap daylight savings time altogether
  • Consolidate and reduce the four current continental U.S. time zones (Eastern, Central, Mountain, Pacific) to just two (Eastern, Western)

Under the Schrager scenario, the new time zone map for the continental United States would look like this:

simplified time zone mapDr. Schrager points out that, while a fewer number of larger time zone geographies would seem to remove some people further from their “true” time zone, the realities of global commerce are already doing that anyway.

By contrast, she sees the benefits as more major.  For example, frequent travel between time zones under today’s four zones causes jet lag, robbing employees of productive work time.

With just a one-hour time difference between New York and California, bi-coastal travel would become almost effortless in that regard, Schrager maintains.

As for the disruption such a change might cause to international business coordination, Dr. Schrager contends that just as it took one or two countries to start things off in the 1880s, someone needs to step up to the plate today to start a new trend.

She says:  “… America won’t line up with the time zones of countries directly north and south unless this catches on as a global trend.  But the discontinuity ship already sailed when rich Western countries haphazardly adopted daylight savings time and most other countries didn’t.  Time is already arbitrary; why not make it work in our favor?”

Does Dr. Schrager raise some good points?  Would simplifying the time zone map and ditching daylight savings time be a “net positive” or not?

Some of her arguments seem to make sense to me.  What do you think?  Please share your thoughts with other readers if you’re so inclined.

A surprising development? America is now the world’s largest oil supplier.

number-1For those of us who came of age during the oil embargo of 1973 and the subsequent decades of high-priced, restricted-supply petroleum coupled with a contorted foreign policy continuously buffeted by those economic realities … the recent news that the United States is poised to become the world’s top oil supplier in 2013 comes as a bit of a surprise.

But it’s right there in black-and-white, in data published by PIRA Energy Group, a New York-based energy markets consulting firm:

  • This year, the United States is projected to produce an average of ~12 million barrels per day of liquid oil products (crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels together).
  • That’s ~300,000 barrels per day higher than Saudi Arabia … and ~1.6 million more than Russia.
  • The other countries that make up the “Big Ten” oil producers – China, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Mexico – don’t even come close to the “Big Three.”

Where’s Venezuela on the list?  Nowhere to be found.

Take that, Carlos Chávez and Nicolás Maduro!

The United States is forecast to pump approximately 7.5 million barrels per day of crude and concentrate in 2013.  That’s actually 3 million barrels less than Saudi Arabia and Russia.

But the shortfall is more than made up by the ~2.5 million in natural gas liquids and ~1 million of biofuels America is also producing every day.

The rise in U.S. production is practically unprecedented.  Only once before has a country raised its production faster (Saudi Arabia in 1970-74).

The reason for the rise in American production?  Two words:  “shale oil.”

USA Shale Gas Exploration ZonesU.S. shale oil and condensate production now stands at ~2.5 million barrels per day.  That’s slightly over one-third of total U.S. crude production.

And shale natural gas liquid production, at ~1.2 million barrels per day, is nearly half of total NGL production.

America’s shale oil boom could turn out to be of far greater import than all of the renewable or “alternative energy” schemes put together – despite the political attention and funding these more “sexy” technologies have had lavished on them by federal and state governments and research foundations.

Abetted by the explorationof shale oil formations via horizontal drilling and fracking, the impact of shale oil reserves isn’t a flash in the pan, either.  According to PIRA Energy, America’s position as the largest oil supplier in the world looks to be secure for many years.

Production growth rates may level off eventually, but PIRA forecasts that the United States will continue to increase its lead over Saudi Arabia and Russia until 2020 at least.

… And retain its production lead over all other countries until at least 2030.

What a relief all of this is.  Speaking for myself, I’m loving the fact that America is no longer so beholden to offshore energy resources controlled by people who “might” be our friends one day … and who “might” not be the next.

It’s like financial debt:  Having too much debt is really bad.  Having no debt at all is really nice.

Energy independence — or something close to it — is really nice, too.

Samsung gets its marketing knuckles wrapped – twice.

Samsung logoTech manufacturing giant Samsung’s “questionable” marketing activities have been in the news this past week – again.

This time, it’s reported that the company has been fined a $340,000 penalty for paying people to post trash-talk comments about competitor HTC’s products in customer online forums in Taiwan.

Back in April, the Fair Trade Commission in Taiwan opened an investigation into allegations that Samsung had recruited certain employees along with freelance writers from the outside to flack the shortcomings of its competitors’ products.

In addition to the company being held culpable, two of Samsung’s outside marketing firms were fined for their part in the marketing shenanigans masquerading as natural content.

This is pretty big news in the world of smartphones.  HTC and Samsung are major competitors in this highly competitive marketplace, and both companies offer products that operate on the Android platform.

But Samsung’s fortunes have risen dramatically over the past year as its global smartphone market share jumped from ~19% to ~30%.

By contrast, HTC’s share declined from ~9% to slightly less than ~5% over the same period.

Evidently, Samsung couldn’t resist the temptation to kick a competitor when it was already on the ropes.

Chalk it up to the “take no prisoners” atmosphere in the cutthroat competitive world of mobile technology – the “New York Garment District mentality” writ large.

“Astro-turfing” isn’t new, of course.  But the practice is usually the province of smaller companies with fewer scruples … or marketing people who are simply unaware of proper marketing etiquette (and often backed by legal opinion).

Amateur hour
“Amateur hour” at Samsung’s marketing department makes the company look just … silly.

For a company as large and as sophisticated at Samsung, it does seem a little … odd.  And certainly not in good form.

But as it turns out, this isn’t the first time Samsung’s gotten caught with its marketing pants down.

Just a few months ago, the company was discovered bribing various people to “talk up” its development activities – and “talk down” their competitors – during the Samsung Smart App Challenge competition.

Android developer Delyan Kratunov went public with ongoing correspondence in which a viral marketing company working for Samsung offered him $500 to cite positive mentions on the Stack Overflow online community.

The instructions were specific:  Mr. Kratunov would need to ask a series of “casual and organic” questions about Samsung’s app challenge over a month-long period.

Later, the marketing company attempted to distance itself from the egregious behavior — but not before the incident had been exposed.

My response to Samsung is this:  You’re already winning.  There’s no need to engage in “adolescent business behavior” of this kind.

It’s in very bad form … and sooner or later it’ll come back to bite you.

Stuff like this always does eventually.

Getting Bunky with Retail Marketing

digital circularsAre the days of the lowly printed sales circular numbered?

Judging from the flurry of newfangled activity by key retail marketers, it would seem so.

This past week, CVS Pharmacy announced a complete makeover of its weekly circular.  The new digital version, dubbed myWeekly Ad, incorporates customized promotions focused on the products that are deemed of greatest interest to individual consumers.

The personalized sale items are determined from scanning the trove of customer buying behavior information housed in CVS’s ExtraCare Rewards database, which now numbers more than 70 million active users.

The myWeekly Ad circular determines which items to feature based on the products that each targeted consumer buys most frequently, along with showcasing deals on other products in related categories that may also be of interest based on the purchase history of each customer.

CVS’s digital circular provides other user-friendly options as well:

  • Consumers can scan the savings and rewards currently available to them, and print coupons or digitally send special offers to their card before visiting a CVS store. 
  • Shopping lists can be created, shared and sent to mobile devices. 
  • Shoppers can view their own purchase history showing all products bought at CVS previously going back 18 months.

And CVS is hardly alone in digitizing its MarComm materials.  Thanks to the continuing evolution of rewards cards and the voluminous customer data they can collect, new personalized circular announcements are coming with regularity now.

Here are some of the latest new developments:

  • Shoplocal is a Gannett-owned print and digital circular publisher.  It has gotten together with personalized video firm Eyeview to create a new digital ad promo piece known as V-circular.  This vehicle allows retailers and major brands to target customers on a local level based on geographic, demographic and behavioral data – along with factoring in “real-time” conditions like the weather.
  • National coupon clearinghouse Valpak has introduced a novel “augmented reality” feature for its digital circulars.  Simply pointing a smartphone toward the horizon will enable shoppers to see which nearby businesses are offering coupons.
  • Direct mail media and marketing services firm Valassis has unveiled Geo-Commerce Retail Zone, a new ad-targeting capability that applies transaction and behavior data from consumers to local store trading areas, enabling targeted advertising to be delivered cross-platform.

No one questions the fact that more and more information on individual consumers is being collected, archived and applied on an individualized basis.  Anonymity is fast becoming a quaint notion of the past.

Of course, this couldn’t happen without the cooperation and willing engagement of consumers. 

Considering the benefits – special discounts and even freebies on goods and services – is it any wonder that these programs have been able to grow in size and comprehensiveness over time?

What are your thoughts about the tradeoffs?  Feel free to add your thoughts to the discussion.

The sober reflection on the healthcare.gov website is … really sobering.

superman brandBy now, nearly everyone has read or heard news reports about the “slow-motion train wreck” that is the newly minted Federal healthcare exchange.

It’s not only late-night comedians who are piling on.  It’s people like a senior technology officer at one of the major social media sites who texted, “It was a uniquely incompetent team that worked on their website.”

“Uniquely incompetent”:  Now there’s a sound-bite for you.

Those two words may do more to bury the notion that government-managed healthcare is a good thing than all of the political opposiion’s ideological arguments put together.

But as I often do with domestic policy challenges, I turn to my brother, Nelson Nones, who has lived and worked overseas for years – for an outsider’s perspective.

Here’s what Nelson wrote to me:

healthcare.gov landing pageFrom what I’m seeing, it’s going to be a long, long time before the Federal healthcare exchange website (healthcare.gov) works properly.

To see why, take a look at this article just published by Forbes magazine: http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2013/10/21/obamacares-website-is-crashing-because-backend-was-doomed-in-the-requirements-stage/.

If the article’s diagnosis is true, then the entire back-end may need to be re-architected.

That’s not something one can do quickly with a “tech surge” of “the best and brightest from both inside and outside government to scrub in with the team and help improve healthcare.gov,” as the Department of Health & Human Services put it on Sunday and President Obama reiterated on Monday.

According to the various news articles I’ve seen, the cost of designing and developing the website was initially estimated at $94 million and had risen to $292 million by last May. This seems like a lot of money, but you have to put things in perspective.

A personal observation:  I was recently involved in the testing of an enterprise resources planning (ERP) and manufacturing execution system implementation for a large multinational manufacturing company.  The total cost of this project was slightly north of $200 million.  This was the price-tag for an application used by about 6,000 people at a single manufacturing site (albeit a large one).

It, too, was plagued with problems when we went live, and it took almost a year to fix the problems – in fact these problems and their impact on supply chain performance warranted a note in the company’s annual report.  

Just like in what the Forbes article reported, the great majority of the problems traced back to the requirements stage – as I warned the senior management at this company (repeatedly) during the design phase.

For the healthcare.gov website, it seems to me that even $292 million is a low-ball figure considering the site has to support tens of millions of users (not 6,000) in a whole country (not just a single manufacturing site).  The Forbes article suggests that the $292 million was invested primarily on the front end, without attempting to consolidate the databases that sit on the back end.

This implies that the back-end design and development were woefully shortchanged — and as a result the front end doesn’t work.

Perhaps things would have gone better if $1 billion had been invested properly the first time around.

Unfortunately, from (painful) experience I can tell you that it’s almost impossible to invest wisely in architectural improvements while you’re in the middle of a crisis, so I’d bet the final price tag is likelier to hit $2 billion.

And … because that $2 billion won’t be invested wisely either, the problems will take longer to fix.

My prediction?  Two years.

In distilling all of this down to its essence, you can’t do much better than the famous words of Michael Dukakis, former governor of Massachusetts and one-time presidential candidate:

“It’s not about ideology.  It’s about competence.”

Is AdTrap the answer to our prayers when it comes to blocking online advertising?

ad blocking deviceYou may have heard of AdTrap … or maybe you haven’t.

AdTrap is a newly developed device that intercepts online ads before they reach any devices that access a person’s Internet connection.

That basic action means that people are able to surf the web – including viewing videos – without the onslaught of online advertisements that seem to become more and more pervasive with every passing month.

The fundamental promise that the developers of AdTrap are making is a return to the “good ol’ days” of web surfing.

You know, back when most web pages you downloaded contained text and pictures – and virtually no advertising.

AdTrap’s motto is a simple and powerful one:  The Internet is yours again.”

Not surprisingly, there’s a good deal of excitement surrounding this new product.  In fact, interest has been so great that the invention attracted more than $200,000 in funding — raised in a 30-day Kickstarter campaign in early 2013.

Those funds are now being used to manufacture the first AdTrap units for shipment to “early adopter” consumers across the country.

How New an Idea Is This?

advertisingIn actuality, there have been a plethora of (often-free) software and browser plug-ins offered to consumers that can block online advertisements. 

But most of them have significant limitations because they’ve been designed to work only with specific browsers or on specific devices.

Free is good, of course.  But the developers of AdTrap are banking on the willingness of consumers to shell out $139 for their product – a rectangular box that looks a lot like a wireless router and that intercepts advertisements before they reach a laptop, tablet or mobile device.

The beauty of AdTrap is that it will work on every device connected to a person’s network.  Situated between the modem and router, it takes just a few minutes to set up.  

CNN technology correspondent Dan Simon reports that AdTrap does an effective job blocking advertising content.  But not perfectly; ads still appear on Hulu content, for example. 

But the developers of AdTrap report that they’re working on ways to block even more content going forward, including ads on Hulu.

Is this Bigger than Merely Blocking Ads?

Beyond the collective sigh of relief you’re likely hearing from those reading this blog post … what are the larger implications if AdTrap and similar devices are adopted by consumers on a large scale?

One not-so-positive implication may be that websites will no longer offer be able to offer content without charge, since so many publishers’ business models rely on advertising content to help pay most of the bills.

If advertising isn’t appearing thanks to AdTrap, people aren’t getting paid.

So let’s think about this for a minute:  It’s true that the Internet was blissfully free of wall-to-wall advertising 15 years ago compared to today. 

But cyberspace was also far less robust in terms of the quantity and quality of the informational and entertainment content available to us.

So yes … having a device to block 80% or more of the ads served to us is a very attractive proposition.  But if it means that some of our favorite sites move to pay-walls as a result, it might be that making a $139 investment in an AdTrap device isn’t such a “no-brainer” choice in the final analysis.

What do you think of this development — pro or con?  Please share your thoughts with other readers here.

“Public pronouncements” versus “private predilections”: What we say isn’t always what we actually believe.

Public versus private thinkingThere’s an intriguing new research report out from Young & Rubicam that lays bare the contradictions of what people say they like and want … and what they secretly think.

The findings are outlined in a new research study Y&R has dubbed Secrets & Lies … and it’s based on research conducted in September 2013 among adults over age 18 in the United States, Brazil and China.

The bottom line?  The Y&R research finds that many people hold views that are diametrically opposed to what they reveal to others publicly.

That kind of a result would be difficult to measure using traditional survey research.  So Y&R chose to meld the conventional survey approach with a second methodology known as “Implicit Association Testing.”

IAT helps reveal sub-conscious or unconscious motivations that lie outside of our standard awareness.

So, what contradictions and correlations did the research uncover? 

Let’s start with the study’s global findings.  When asked to rank-order a group of 16 “values,” here’s a listing of the top five values as cited by the survey respondents in all three countries:

  • #1.  Finding meaning in life
  • #2.  Choosing my own path
  • #3.  Helpfulness
  • #4.  Environmentalism
  • #5.  Success

Now … compare that to the “Top 5” list that was revealed with these same respondents were evaluated using implicit association:

  • #1.  Sexual fulfillment
  • #2.  Respect for tradition
  • #3.  Maintaining security
  • #4.  Environmentalism
  • #5.  Building wealth

Wow.

We  see just one value appearing on both lists … and there are some pretty big differences in the values that reside on each of them.

Did American respondents differ from their counterparts in China and Brazil?  Like the global results, the values were quite different between conscious responses and implicit association. 

U.S. respondents named helpfulness as their highest-ranked value, followed by choosing my own path and finding meaning in life.

But what did the implicit association testing reveal among these same American respondents?

Far from being at the top of the list, “helpfulness” came in dead last:  16th place out of 16 values rated.  Instead, the top three “subconscious” values are actually these:

  • #1.  Maintaining security
  • #2.  Sexual fulfillment
  • #3.  Honoring tradition

As the Y&R study pointedly opines, America’s top conscious values sound like political correctness reminiscent of the Oprah Show … whereas our unconscious values sound more like a return to the Eisenhower era.

These seeming disconnects between “public pronouncements” and “private predilections” manifest themselves in brand image as well.

As it turns out, consumers say they like the “popular kids” on the branding block a lot more than they actually do subconsciously.

Here’s a list of top brands researched and how they come out in conscious rating versus IAT evaluation:

  • Alignment between public and secret likes:  Amazon, Target, Whole Foods
  • Alignment between public and secret dislikes:  AT&T, K-Mart, Playboy
  • Liked less in secret:  Google, Microsoft, Starbucks
  • Liked more in secret:  Exxon, Facebook, National Inquirer

When I scan this list, it’s pretty evident what’s going on.  Certain brands are popular whipping boys in the “popular media” and on certain cable news channels, where one rarely hears positive word uttered about them. 

Not surprisingly, it’s precisely those brands that get a “public thumbs-down” from the respondents.

But in secret — away from the klieg lights and the admonitions of the culture’s PC denizens — it’s quite a different ballgame.

Of course, no one would want their brand to be in AT&T’s or K-Mart’s unenviable position – because that’s where people dislike those companies publicly as well as in their private thoughts!

Sprawl & Crawl: Are work commutes actually worse than you think?

DC traffic
It turns out politics isn’t the only kind of gridlock in Washington, DC. It also has more traffic gridlock than anywhere else in the country.

This past weekend, The Wall Street Journal published a feature story in its “Personal Journal” section that profiled how businesspeople cope with their daily work commutes

It turns out that the average daily work commute in the United States takes about 25 minutes

Another interesting statistic from the article is the amount of time car commuters in larger cities spend stuck in traffic:  52 hours annually, or about an extra hour per week.

The WSJ story profiled several people who access mass transportation for their work commutes, as well as one businessman who relocated from the Washington, DC Metropolitan area to Metro Cincinnati, substantially reducing his daily commute time and hassle in the process.

As someone who lives not far from the DC Metro area and who contemplates any drive through the region with a mixture of disdain and dread, this got me to wondering:  Just what is the worst geographic market for commuting?

Helpfully, there’s a recently completed study that answers this very question.  The Transportation Institute at Texas A&M University has applied a calculation tool called the Planning Time Index (PTI) to compare drive times in heavy traffic (i.e., rush hour) against travel times when the same highways are clear.

The way the PTI calculation works is this:  A PTI of 2.00 means that a “normal” drive will take twice as long in heavy traffic. 

Using that PTI=2.00 example, a drive that may ordinarily take ~20 minutes will take ~40 minutes instead.

My suspicions about the DC Metro area turned out to be right on the money.  Here are the most “challenging” metro markets for work commutes based on their PTI indices:

  • Washington DC:  5.72 PTI index
  • Los Angeles:  4.95
  • New York-Newark:  4.44
  • Boston:  4.25
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington:  4.00
  • Seattle:  3.99
  • Chicago:  3.95
  • San Francisco-Oakland:  3.74
  • Atlanta:  3.71
  • Houston:  3.67

How do these PTI indices translate into actual drive times?  Shockingly, a DC-area commute that ordinarily takes 20 minutes translates into almost two hours in heavy traffic. 

And among all of the other “top ten” worst markets, that normally 20-minute commute  will take 1.2 hours or longer in rush-hour traffic.

Interestingly, when one scans the “Top Ten” list, the only Midwest urban area that shows up on it is Chicagoland.  So if you wish to avoid the hassle of long commutes, consider relocating to urban markets in the Midwest like St. Louis, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Cleveland, Milwaukee or Kansas City.

But what’s the absolutely easiest metro market for commuting?  According to the Texas A&M study, it would be Pensacola in Florida.  It has a PTI of just 1.31. 

… Which means only about six extra minutes in rush traffic compared to the ordinary 20-minute commute.

Come to think of it … Pensacola has great beaches and nice sea breezes as well.  Perhaps dealing with the occasional hurricane is worth it, all hassles considered!