I’ve blogged before about the immigration issue and its potential impact on the U.S. economy and society.
Now the Pew Research Center has released a report that predicts the U.S. becoming a “no ethnic majority” nation within the next 35 years.
When one considers that the United States population was nearly 85% white Anglo in 1965 … and that percentage has dropped to about 62% now, it isn’t that hard to imagine Pew’s prediction coming true.
Here’s the trajectory Pew predicts over the coming ten-year periods:
- 2015: ~62% estimated U.S. white Anglo population percentage
- 2025: ~58% projected white Anglo population percentage
- 2035: ~56% projected
- 2045: ~51% projected
- 2055: ~48% projected
- 2065: ~46% projected
Perhaps what’s more intriguing is that Pew projects the largest future percentage gains will be among Asian-Americans rather than Latino or Black Americans. The Asian share of the American population is expected to double over the period:
- 2015: ~6% estimated U.S. Asian population percentage
- 2025: ~7% projected Asian population percentage
- 2035: ~9% projected
- 2045: ~10% projected
- 2055: ~12% projected
- 2065: ~14% projected
If these projections turn out to be accurate, the Asian population percentage is on tap to become the nation’s third highest group.
By contrast, the Hispanic population, while continuing to grow, looks as if it will level off at about 22% of the country’s population by 2045. For Black Americans, Pew projects the same dynamics at work, but at the 13% level.
According to Pew’s analysis, the biggest driving force for the projected Asian population growth is immigration. By 2055, Pew expects that Asians will supplant Latinos as the largest single source of immigrants — and by 2065 the difference is expected to be substantial (38% Asian vs. 31% Latino immigrants).
Conducted in parallel with Pew’s projection analysis was an online opinion research survey of American adults (18 and over) it conducted in March and April of this year.
Among the attitudinal findings Pew uncovered were these:
- “Immigrants in the U.S. are making society better”: ~45% of respondents agree … ~37% disagree
- “I would like to see a reduction in immigration”: ~50% agree
- “I would like to see the immigration system changed or completely revamped”: ~80% agree
Again, no great surprises in these figures — although if one paid attention only to news accounts in the “popular media,” one might find it surprising to learn that a plurality of Americans actually consider immigration a net positive for American society …
Additional findings from the Pew survey as well as its demographic projections can be found here.