Holiday shopping behaviors: Black Friday is losing some of its luster.

It’s the beginning of October – which means that the holiday shopping season will soon be upon us.

… If it isn’t already, based on the holiday displays we’re already seeing cropping up at some major retail chain stores.

Of course, U.S. retailing firms have been gearing up for the season for months now, in terms of building merchandise inventories and so forth. But what sort of consumer shopping dynamics will they be facing this year?

According to new research published by Euclid, Inc. in its 2017 Evolution of Retail report which covers holiday physical and digital retail trends, Cyber Monday has now overtaken all of the other holiday-season shopping days in terms of consumer excitement.

That finding is based on a survey of ~1,500 U.S. consumers age 18 and older. While majorities of respondents report that they are excited about each of the three biggest revenue days of the holidays, for the first time ever Cyber Monday heads the list in terms of consumer interest and excitement:

Cyber Monday: ~72% of consumers report being excited about this shopping day

Black Friday: ~62%

Day after Christmas: ~55%

Clearly, online shopping continues to build momentum year over year. But the Euclid research also reveals that physical stores continue to have a major role in the “buying journey.” Even among consumers in the 18-34 age group, three out of four respondents report that they visit physical stores on a regular basis to see products “in the flesh” – even if they purchase them online later.

Not surprisingly, “price” remain the biggest driver in consumer shopping behaviors during the holiday season, but convenience is another factor as well. It isn’t simply a store’s location that matters, but also how quickly shoppers can get in and out of the store that affects their views of “convenience.”

Interestingly, when comparing just in-store shopping plans, more respondents in the Euclid survey expect to be shopping on the day after Christmas (63%) than on Black Friday (60%) this year.

Perhaps the decisions by some big retailers to curtail store hours on that traditional first day of the holiday shopping season are being driven by more than simply altruism …

The complete Euclid report for 2017 can be downloaded here.

Will consumer spending bring holiday cheer to businesses in 2016?

November 22, 2016November 22, 2016 Phillip Nones Advertising, Business, Marketing, Marketing Communications, Marketing Research, Sales, Social Commentary Consumers, Holiday Forecasts, Holiday Season Sales, Holiday Shopping, Holiday Shopping Forecast, Holiday Shopping Revenues, Holiday Shopping Trends, Holiday Spending, Retail, Retail Shopping Trends

The holiday season isn’t yet upon us, and already there are a plethora of prognostications being made as to how holiday sales will stack up compared to prior years.

These predictions come courtesy of numerous forecasters including the National Retail Foundation, Deloitte, Kantar Media, eMarketer, the International Council of Shopping Centers, Market Track and others.

So what’s in store? On balance, forecasters predict that holiday sales in the United States will post an increase of approximately 3.5%. That’s higher than the 10-year rolling average of 2.5% but down a tick from last year’s 3.7% increase.

Still, at more than $655 billion in total sales, holiday spending continues to be the biggest single driver of the U.S. consumer market.

Hardly surprising, e-commerce sales are expected to continue their double-digit growth over last year’s holiday season, with various predictions ranging from 14% to 17% growth in this sector. Not only are consumers attracted by the convenience of online shopping, many of them believe they can find products at the cheapest price via online sources rather than taking a trip to the shopping mall.

Another factor that drives at least some people to shop on their online devices is their aversion to the crush of holiday shopping at the stores. A McKinsey study has found that nearly one-third of U.S. consumers basically hate Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), and make it a point to stay as far away from it as possible.

But there’s one drawback for businesses about online holiday shopper dynamics, however: Those consumers tend to be less brand loyal than is typical. RJ Metrics calculates that the typical e-commerce business acquires nearly 25% of its new customers during just the months of November and December. Tempering that healthy statistic is the lifetime value of those consumers, which RJ Metric has determined is about 13% lower than the lifetime value of customers acquired at other times of the year.

You might be wondering what amount of money the typical U.S. consumer will spend on his or her holiday shopping this year. Wait for it: The 2015 per capita amount is expected to be $935.

That figure may seem quite rich … but it’s actually a little bit lower than 2015’s average spend-per-person, which at $953 happens to have been the all-time high ever recorded.

Does the new $935 forecast signify a reversal of a trend … or is it just a pause in an otherwise ever-increasing amount of money that consumers are willing to plunk down as part of their celebration of the holiday season?

Check back in about a year and we should have an answer.

Even with endless gift choices available online … gift cards reign supreme.

December 11, 2011 Phillip Nones Uncategorized consumer spending, Gift Cards, Holiday Shopping, Holiday Spending, National Retail Federation, NRF, Retail, Retail Shopping Trends, Retail Trends

Gift cards are bigger than ever in holiday season 2011 — Gift cards are forecast to be bigger than ever in holiday season 2011.

The growth of online shopping has been well-documented, and this holiday season is no exception.

And why not? Online shopping so convenient and cost-effective.

Shopping online gives people the flexibility to shop from wherever they are, without having to spend money on transportation. They can shop at all hours of the day or night. Merchandise price comparisons between sites are easy to do. And in many cases, consumers won’t have to pay any sales taxes or shipping charges.

Tack on free gift notes and even free gift-wrapping at many sites, and you have to wonder why anyone would bother to shop for gifts any other way.

In an environment where shopping has become so easy, convenient and cost-effective – and with basically endless merchandise choices – you might figure that holiday shoppers would be finding and buying “just the right gift” for family members or friends.

And so what’s “just the right gift”? Gift cards – to the tune of $28 billion, according to the National Retail Federation’s Holiday Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey, which queried more than 8,500 consumers in early November.

It’s not just that gift cards are the easiest possible gift to buy, with basicaly zero thought going into the purchase. It turns out they’re also the most requested holiday gift on people’s wish lists. (Prior NRF surveys going back five years have found that to be the case, too.)

The 2011 holiday intentions survey found that gift cards are on track to eclipse last year’s performance:

 More people plan to purchase gift cards this season (~80% versus ~77% in 2010)

 The average gift card amount will be higher (~$43 vs. ~$41)

The average total spend on all gift cards is predicted to be ~$155 per purchaser. The survey also found that men tend to spend more on gift cards than women.

Speaking for myself, I’m not at all surprised by that last finding. I think I fit the profile pretty well: After “one too many” gift returns made by my wife and daughters, I resorted to gift cards a few years ago and have never looked back.