Population Trends

Just because the housing bubble of the mid-2000s resulted in foreclosures, a down economy, and more young people moving back in with Mom and Dad … don’t believe that more fundamental demographic changes aren’t continuing to have a long-term effect as well.

This is underscored by newly published data on American households issued by the U.S. Bureau of Census, which breaks down statistics on the more than 121 million households in the United States.

As of 2012, the average size of the U.S. household stood at 2.55 people. That’s a decline of about one person per household since 1950.

What’s contributed the most to the decline of this average has been the increase in single-person households. According to the Census Bureau, those households now account for more than a quarter of all households in the country:

One-person households: ~27% of total U.S. households
Two-person HHs: ~34%
Three-person HHs: ~16%
Four-person HHs: ~13%
Five-person HHs: ~6%
Six-person HHs: ~2%
Seven or more persons per household: ~1%

In fact, the number of single-person households has gone up five-fold since 1960. A major part of the reason is the large percentage of older Americans (age 75+) who live alone – more than half.

That compares to only a quarter of households headed by people under the age of 30.

Other interesting factoids from the Census Bureau stats reflect some of the changing social mores in American society:

There are nearly 8 million unmarried couples living together – more than double the figure less than a decade ago. (It was ~2.9 million in 1996).
Married households now make up fewer than half of all households. (In 1970, that percentage was over 70%.)

But one demographic statistic does seem to reflect the consequences of the recent economic recession and the contraction in the American labor force: As of 2012, only ~52% of married couples have both spouses in the labor force, which is down from ~56% reported in 2000.

These new stats come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest Annual Social & Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey, the data for which was collected in March and April 2012 from a nationwide sample of approximately 100,000 addresses.

You can view additional findings here.

Home Foreclosures — U.S. home foreclosures set a record in 2009 ... and are on their way to being even higher in 2010.

When it comes to the U.S. residential real estate market, the latest statistics and forecasts don’t bode well at all for the industry. Recently released stats on foreclosure rates reveal that 2009 was the worst year on record. And unfortunately, 2010 is looking like it’ll shatter the record yet again.

According to RealtyTrac, a firm that monitors real estate and foreclosure data, more than 2.8 million properties in America received a foreclosure notice during the past year. That’s 21% more than in 2008 and a whopping 120% higher than what was reported in 2007.

Moreover, one in every 45 households received at least one filing last year – nearly four times higher than 2006. These ugly numbers were racked up in spite of robust foreclosure prevention programs, without which the figures doubtless would have been significantly higher.

Unfortunately, the scenario doesn’t appear any better for 2010. Unless and until lenders are able to get principal balance reductions, high default rates are going to continue. In fact, RealtyTrac projects that a new record of 3 million or more properties will get a filing this year.

Where are we seeing the biggest problems? Well … in Michigan, to nobody’s surprise. But also in Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Until recently, those were states blessed with dramatic – even outsized – population and job growth, along with commensurately growing political power.

But as outlined in a recent article by Michael Barone, in an interesting twist of fate, these states are now experiencing net out-migration, while erstwhile laggard states in the Northeast and Midwest are now showing net in-migration.

It’ll likely take years to sort out the scrambled residential real estate market we have today – a situation sparked by a housing crisis for which many in government and the private sector are responsible … but which has also caught far too many innocent people in its clutches. Hopefully, the lessons learned will not be soon forgotten.