It matters not the political party nor ideological stripe of the candidate, we hear copious references to “the disappearing middle class” … the “middle class squeeze” … and that the middle class is “just getting by.”
Considering that the middle class income group represent the single largest block of voters in the country, it isn’t at all surprising that the presidential contenders would talk about middle class issues — and to middle class voters — so frequently.
The question is … is the hand-wringing warranted?
Well, if one believes a new Pew Research study on the subject, it may well be the case.
Based on its most recent analysis of government data going back nearly 50 years, Pew reports that there are now fewer Americans in the “middle” of the economic spectrum than at the lower and upper ends.
This is a major development, and it is new.
Pew defines a middle class household as one with annual income ranging from ~$42,000 to ~$126,000 during 2014. Using that definition, Pew calculates that there are now 120.8 million adults living in middle class households, but 121.3 million who are living in either upper- or lower-income households.
Pew characterizes this new set of figures as a kind of tipping point. And it helps to underscore the narrative wherein certain presidential candidates — you-all know which ones — are tapping into a collective “angst” about the decline in middle-income families, and the notion that they are falling behind compared to upper-income adults while unable to access many of the support services available to lower-income households.
Looking at things in a bit more depth, however, one can find explanations — as well as other data points that go against the “narrative” to some degree. Consider the following:
- Senior citizens have done quite well shifting into the upper category since the 1970s — their share increasing by well over 25% in the upper-income bracket.
- African-Americans have experienced the largest increase in income status over the same period, meaning that their lower-income category share is lower today.
- The rapid rise in the number of immigrants in the late 20th century has pushed down median incomes because those new arrivals, on average, make less in income.
I suspect the Pew study findings will be fodder for more discussion — and perhaps some additional sloganeering — in the upcoming weeks and months. But you can judge for yourself whether that’s warranted by reviewing more findings from Pew’s report here.
If you have your own perspectives about what’s happening with (or to) the middle class, I’m sure other readers would be quite interested in hearing them. Please share your comments here.